Methodology Note: Alternative Futures Forecasts 09-12

X-Axis Degree of Prior Support for Winner intersected with Y-Axis Confidence in Validity of Voting Results

To challenge the flaws in conventional forecasting methods, Girl Security’s forecasts are based on drivers whose intersections fail to receive mainstream attention. The drivers themselves are derived from trends that Girl Security’s communities identify as being of special concern to them, rather than from trends based on traditional economic and societal indicators. For more on the systemic data gaps and flawed assumptions embedded in conventional futures forecasting that our approach seeks to mitigate, please see the introduction to Girl Security’s Alternative Futures Forecasts.

Key Findings:

• Despite generalized concerns about the reliability of the upcoming elections, the widespread trust Americans have in the integrity of their own ballot could be the key to unlocking a more universal respect for the validity of the election results.
• And despite the extreme poles evident in the rhetoric of party leaders, the data indicating that most Americans are more centrist in their ideological leanings is another bulwark against debilitating polarization going unchecked.
• If enhanced, these two levers could shift America’s future toward more positive trajectories that lead to greater respect for elections held across the country and more engaged citizens holding party strategists and elected representatives accountable to citizens’ priorities.
• Nonetheless, the November 2024 elections are too soon to place America firmly on alternative pathways. For this election’s outcome to be accepted by the American people requires that the candidates across the board to respect its outcome.
• To ensure post-election acceptance of both winners and losers, candidates should publicly commit, now, to specific measures of free and fair elections. Such metrics might include:

Statistical Analysis: Identifying a mutually agreed upon academic or nonpartisan think tank to apply the guide published by the National Academy of Sciences for using statistical analysis to detect systematic election irregularities;