Methodology Note: Alternative Futures Forecasts 13-16

X-Axis number of loved ones with opposing politics with Y-Axis will to fight if your party loses

To challenge the flaws in conventional forecasting methods, Girl Security’s forecasts are based on drivers whose intersections fail to receive mainstream attention. The drivers themselves are derived from trends that Girl Security’s communities identify as being of special concern to them, rather than from trends based on traditional economic and societal indicators. For more on the systemic data gaps and flawed assumptions embedded in conventional futures forecasting that our approach seeks to mitigate, please see the introduction to Girl Security’s Alternative Futures Forecasts.

Key Findings:

• Security workforces, from local law enforcement to workplace security, might consider prioritizing their planning resources on preventing violence in public spaces where mixed political affiliations are likely, as per Scenario 16. By anticipating outbursts of violence in such places, they are more likely to identify early detection and mitigation opportunities.
• As noted in Alternative Futures Forecasts 09-12